9117 Anacapa Bay Pinckney, Michigan 48169

810-231-5050

We Live Here, We Work Here, We Play Here

9117 Anacapa Bay Pinckney, Michigan 48169

810-231-5050

We Live Here, We Work Here, We Play Here

Located at the gateway to the Pinckney & Brighton Rec Area

Up To Date Real Estate News

17 Aug 2018 9:30 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

10yr yields ended the week at almost exactly where they began. With the exception of Tuesday, bonds closed within 1.5bps of each other on the other 4 days this week. Tuesday was only 2bps higher and gave way to an overnight rally that restored the range anyway! Long story short, for all the hullabaloo about Turkey/China/Etc. it was a really quiet week. Part of the issue is that Turkish shockwaves had their fun last week, but even then, it's not as if bonds are making big moves in the bigger picture. If bonds aren't moving, perhaps we can find something interesting to say about something that IS moving and that usually has an effect on bonds. Granted, I'll be the first to point out that the stock market should never be seen as a bond market indicator, but if we want to keep track...(read more)

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17 Aug 2018 8:29 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were almost perfectly unchanged today. That leaves them right in line with last Friday's levels. I devoted a considerable number of words in yesterday's article to explaining why most other articles about mortgage rates were inaccurate yesterday. Suffice it to say that the absence of change compared to last Friday fully drives home the point I was making. In short, due to the primary source data that most news organizations use for their big mortgage story each week, the average article proclaimed a nice drop in rates. In actuality, that drop happened at the end of last week. From there, rates have barely budged. These rates aren't the worst we've seen and they're not the best. They're pretty comparable to most of the past few months. You'd have to go back to May 2018 to see...(read more)

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17 Aug 2018 3:41 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Fannie Mae's monthly Economic Development papers always have the best headlines, pithy and to the point. The August one reads. "Growth Picks Up as Expected, No Thanks to Housing." Sort of says it all. The company's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Team is upgrading its estimate of third quarter growth based on the acceleration of headline economic growth in the second quarter. Consumer spending and net exports drove the action although business inventories declined and dragged on growth. So too did residential investment, which had a negative impact for the fourth time in five quarters, subtracting 0.04 percentage point from the GDP. The residential investment component includes homebuilding, renovations, and brokerage commissions. Home building was lackluster, posting the largest monthly...(read more)

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17 Aug 2018 2:22 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

It may end up being a slow, summertime Friday with the news cycle calming down relative to earlier in the week, not to mention the fact that its peak vacation season (traders take vacations too, ya know!). That gives us a moment to step back and reflect on some bigger picture trends . US rates have been playing Red Light, Green Light with global risks all year. If they had their way, they'd continue moving higher, but they slowed their roll and settled into a more gradual pace after the Italian political drama in the middle of the year. The weeks leading up to the Italian drama ended up looking like a big, temporary breakout of what would eventually become the sideways-to-slightly-higher range. Subsequent global risks haven't measured up to Italy in terms of bond market impact. Trade...(read more)

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17 Aug 2018 1:03 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Loan performance continued to improve in the second quarter. The overall delinquency rate on one-to-four-unit residential properties fell to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.36 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of that period, a 27-basis point (bp) decline from the first quarter of this year. The National Delinquency Survey conducted by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) found delinquencies in all stages were lower than during the first quarter; the 30-day delinquency rate dropped 2 bps while the 60-day and 90-delinquency buckets dropped by 8 and 18 bps respectively. The overall rate, however was up 12 bps from the second quarter of 2017. The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The share...(read more)

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17 Aug 2018 12:55 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Capital markets folks know that there are billions of dollars of outstanding 5, 6, 7, and even 8% securities filled with high interest-rate loans. LOs know that they aren’t paying off/refinancing. One possible reason? Despite the headlines talking about housing appreciation outpacing wages, about 10% of all U.S. homes with a mortgage are “seriously underwater.” These are homes where the balance on the loans are 25 percent higher than the actual market value of the home. There are 5.5 million seriously underwater properties in the U.S. , but some areas are harder hit than others. In Louisiana, 21.7 percent of homes are seriously underwater, 18.5 percent in Illinois and 17.8 percent in Missouri. Some zip codes are particularly dire: 65809, in Springfield, Missouri has 81 percent...(read more)

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16 Aug 2018 9:13 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Treasuries were weaker at the start of the overnight session as renewed US/China trade negotiations propelled global equities markets higher. The hallmark of yesterday's overnight session was a sharp drop in Chinese stock futures which spilled over to US markets throughout the day. In other words, today was a reversal of yesterday. Granted, the trade-related news wasn't the only motivation, but it was definitely in play when Chinese equities opened at 9:30pm. Before that, there were some positive undercurrents in place from the morning's economic data. An exceptionally and surprisingly weak Philly Fed Index fueled a moderate rally at the that lasted until the 9:30am NYSE Open. From there, US equities took over as the key guidance-giver for bonds. Stocks spiked at the open and Treasury...(read more)

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16 Aug 2018 7:31 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Be careful what you read--or perhaps, who you trust--about mortgage rates today. There's a lot of misinformation out there. Don't be mad. No one is out to get you. No one is out to intentionally deceive you (at least not when it comes to today's mortgage rate news. Rather, the misinformation is a byproduct of a few unfortunate realities that we contend with on a regular basis. The first reality is that Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey is widely relied upon by media outlets. There's nothing wrong with Freddie's data as long as you understand what you're getting. It is a stale, loosely accurate report of what a few lenders are offering on a few days of any given week. Over time (preferably, a LONG time), it does a nearly perfect job of capturing the ups and down in mortgage rates. The problem...(read more)

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16 Aug 2018 4:33 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Purchase loans held on to the June share of 71 percent of closed loans in July which remains the highest share in the seven-year history of Ellie Mae's Origination Insight Report . Refinances also held steady, remaining at 29 percent although the percentage of refinancing through the VA gained 2 percentage points to 25 percent. Conventional and FHA stayed at 31 and 19 percent respectively. The distribution of new loans remained the same as in June as well, with 66 percent of originations going to conventional loans, 20 percent FHA, and VA loans accounting for 10 percent. The share of Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) dropped to 6.6 percent from 6.9 percent the previous month. "The purchase market remained solid in July and as we see inventories rise, we might begin to see a transition to a buyer...(read more)

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16 Aug 2018 2:34 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

I found myself driving in the truck for more than an hour yesterday evening--long enough to hear the news cycle repeated several times. During that time, I was emphatically warned about this " new " and " surprising " issue of Turkey's financial crisis. Apparently this has the potential to send shockwaves through global financial markets. Other people get road rage when other drivers are less than courteous, or due to ridiculous traffic perhaps. I get road rage when news radio misses the mark on financial market movers. I explained this to the officer that pulled me over for ostensibly making menacing gestures toward other drivers. He was going to give me a ticket anyway until I pulled out the laptop to put together the following chart for him. After he saw it, he apologized...(read more)

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16 Aug 2018 2:15 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

As analysts had predicted, both housing permits and starts recovered , albeit only slightly, in July after a poor showing the previous month. The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development now report that housing permits are being issued at a pace higher than in 2017, but housing starts are still lagging the earlier number. Permits for privately owned residential construction were issued in July at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,311,000 units. This is an increase of 1.5 percent from the June rate of 1,292,000 (revised from 1,273,000 units). July's permitting rate is now 4.2 percent higher than that of July 2017. Analysts polled by Econoday had predicted permits would be at a rate ranging from 1,280,000 to 1,325,000. Their consensus was slightly below the...(read more)

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16 Aug 2018 12:56 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Trillions of dollars of securities are tied to LIBOR, but the London Interbank Offered Rate is scheduled to be phased out at the end of 2021. Companies servicing adjustable rate mortgages tied to LIBOR are concerned, understandably, about the transition to another index. So far, the front runner substitute seems to be the Secured Overnight Financing Rate. Floating-rate bank bonds tied to SOFR could be brought to market within months . A name to watch: TD Securities. TD Bank has aided issuance of SOFR-based bonds from the World Bank and Fannie Mae. Technology and Vendor News Lenders can now participate in STRATMOR’s Technology Insight Study, a unique STRATMOR study that gets at the heart of the mortgage technology experience from the lender’s viewpoint. perspective. Time is running...(read more)

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16 Aug 2018 12:05 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

It shouldn't be news to anyone that the homeownership rate of the Millennial generation continues to be anemic. While it has improved slightly since 2015, the Urban Institute's (UI's) new research shows that, at that point it was 37 percent, 8 percentage points lower than the homeownership rate of Gen Xers and baby boomers at the same age. This translates into 3.4 million fewer homeowners among these 75 million young adults. UI researchers Laurie Goodman, Jung Hyun Choi, Jun Zhu, writing in the Institute's Urban Wire blog, say that demographic and lifestyle choices, delayed marriage, increasing diversity, have played a role in the decline, it is the economic environment that has been most determinative. They cite three external factors that are hampering the generation, most of whom turned...(read more)

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15 Aug 2018 8:01 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Headlines continue overstating the connection between US market movements and the financial drama in Turkey. Today was especially damaging to the case for correlation as Turkish Lira improved significantly even as US stocks and bond yields sank. The conventional wisdom has been arguing for the OPPOSITE relationship lately (i.e. weaker Lira pushes bond yields and stock prices lower). US markets weren't too troubled by Turkey today. Rather, it was steep losses in Chinese stocks overnight that correlated most readily with declines in US stocks. The stock slump prompted a fair amount of bond buying demand. The trick for bonds was that traders were widely betting on rates moving higher post-Turkish-crisis. As such the unexpected buying demand set of a wave of short-covering resulting in a bit...(read more)

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15 Aug 2018 5:29 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates fell only modestly today despite a much stronger move in broader bond markets. I spend a lot of time espousing the fact that rates are based on bonds, so it's fair to wonder how days like today happen. Indeed, interest rates are based on bonds, but there are a wide variety of rates and bonds! It's a common misconception that mortgage rates are actually and firmly linked to the 10yr Treasury yield. In reality, this only appears to be the case because the bonds that underlie mortgage tend to move in the same direction as 10yr Treasuries. The magnitude of their moves is also generally the same, but there are notable exceptions. Today was one such exception. In terms of bond prices, 10yr Treasuries did twice as well as mortgage bonds (technically MBS or 'mortgage-backed securities...(read more)

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15 Aug 2018 2:42 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Rising concerns about costs and labor shortages continue to take a toll on home builder sentiment according to the August Housing Market Index (HMI). The Index, a joint product of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo, dipped another point to 67. The HMI has been moving in a narrow range between 68 and 70 since March. The index scored an 18 year high in of 74 last December and has trended lower since. The August number is the lowest so far this year. The index is a distillation of information gathered through a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years. New home builder members of the association are asked to provide their , perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as "good," "fair" or "poor." The...(read more)

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15 Aug 2018 1:45 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

From New York, traders have been looking east for at least some level of inspiration from Turkish market volatility. As we've discussed exhaustively, however, that's far from the only game in town. Today brings fresh evidence. In looking east this morning, traders passed right over Turkey and continued on to China, where a sharp move lower in equities futures drove a moderately big sell-off in US equities futures. Bonds picked up some " risk-off " demand as a result, and that ultimately proved to be a good defense against a stronger Retail Sales number this morning. As the chart points out, there was a staggeringly big flattener trade just before Retail Sales. This one was actually reported on the CME's block trade screen, so there's no guesswork. Simply put, a big...(read more)

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15 Aug 2018 1:13 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Bond prices and mortgage rates, like nearly every commodity, are driven by supply and demand. I mention this because early last week prices of US government bonds declined while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note increased (although it reversed itself due to turmoil in Turkey). Investors bought $34 billion of three-year Treasury notes amid relatively soft demand, with the week bringing the first sales of Treasury notes since the Treasury Department announced it is looking to increase its borrowing in the second half of 2018 to $769 billion, a 63% year-over-year increase. Just something to keep in the back of your mind if you’re hoping for lower rates, or relying on them to help your business model. Corporate Name Changes After 17 years, Georgetown Mortgage, LLC, has outgrown...(read more)

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15 Aug 2018 12:09 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

It was another week of decline for mortgage applications as those for home purchase slid for the fifth week in a row. The overall volume of applications, as measured by the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA's) Market Composite Index, declined by 2.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended August 10. On an unadjusted basis the volume lost 3 percent compared to the prior week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 3 percent and was down 4 percent unadjusted. The unadjusted version was also 3 percent lower than during the corresponding week in 2017. The Refinancing Index did stabilize, remaining at the same level as the previous week. The share of total applications designated for refinancing rose 1 percentage point to 37.6 percent. Refi Index vs 30yr Fixed...(read more)

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14 Aug 2018 8:30 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory as Turkish tensions eased overnight. That certainly wasn't the only game in town as far as market movers were concerned though! On several occasions throughout the day, US bond markets could be seen moving in the opposite direction to that implied by Turkish Lira, etc. We're left with the general sense that bond yields were pulled lower than they'd otherwise like to be by the Turkey-related drama from late last week, and that there's a slew of reasons for them to be gradually moving back from whence they came (2.9-3.0% range). As of this afternoon, that looks to be exactly what they have in mind. 10yr yields are heading out the door up just over 2bps, trading near 2.90%. Fannie 4.0 MBS are down an eighth of a point at 101-21...(read more)

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14 Aug 2018 7:04 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher today, depending on the lender. With the exception of the past two days, this leaves us at the best levels in more than 3 weeks. In general, that move was made possible by financial drama in Turkey, but caveats abound. It's taken a massive amount of pain in Turkish markets/currency to result in a fairly modest move for US interest rates in the bigger picture. Moreover, US rates continue paying attention to multiple sources of inspiration. Turkey was just one among many in that regard, and even then, only when Turkish market movement was its most extreme. More so than yesterday, today brought some hope that the worst is over for Turkey. While that's good for Turkey, it's not good for rates in the US, all other things being equal. That said, it...(read more)

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14 Aug 2018 3:14 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The effects of Hurricane Irma continue to be felt in the Southeast, with Florida the only state to report an increase in its delinquency rate in May. The rate in the state was up 1 percentage point compared to May 2017 and gave Florida the third highest rate in the nation at 6.2 percent. CoreLogic, in its Loan Performance Insights Report, said the rest of the nation continues to improve, although Texas, still impacted by Hurricane Harvey, saw rates remain the same as a year earlier. The national rate was 4.2 percent compared to 4.5 percent in May 2017, the lowest rate for a May in 12 years and within 0.1 percent of the previous low in May 2006. The rate is also well below the pre-crisis period of 2000 to 2006 when the share of delinquent mortgages averaged 4.7 percent. Within the national number...(read more)

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14 Aug 2018 1:24 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Turkish Lira bounced in the overnight session--not in any epic fashion, but enough to result in a bit of spillover for stocks/bonds. 10yr yields rose as high as 2.9022 before cooling back down. Notably, yields fell even as Lira maintained its token recovery. This simply reiterates yesterday's point that US markets have their own agenda . Although they may periodically pay some attention to big swings in Turkey, they have already shown an ample willingness to trade against the grain of Lira volatility. With that in mind, the recent floor around 2.85% looks like the next major technical level for 10yr yields, whether we're looking at US markets keeping a close eye on Turkey or not caring at all. In other words, this was a bounce that bonds had decided on yesterday, independent of further...(read more)

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14 Aug 2018 12:56 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

A Zen master visiting NYC approaches a hot dog vendor and says, "Make me one with everything." The hot dog vendor fixes a hot dog and hands it to the Zen master, who pays with a $20 bill. The vendor puts the bill in the cash box and closes it. "Excuse me, but where’s my change?" asks the Zen master. The vendor responds, "Change must come from within." Most believe that, despite thoughtful and continuous efforts by those in the industry, there won’t be any change coming from Congress this year, perhaps even next, on Freddie and Fannie’s status. There’s not a lot of urgency, nor is it an election issue, nor, it can be argued, are consumers being hurt by current policies and procedures. The FHFA and industry will be adjusting things as time goes on regarding guidelines...(read more)

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13 Aug 2018 9:29 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Another day, another chance for market watchers and pundits of all types to make mountains out of Turkish molehills. Yes, the financial crisis in Turkey is important and it's still a thing , but no... it's not the most important market mover for bonds or stocks at the moment. There's only a very small possibility that it's even the biggest risk to the global financial market. Stocks and bonds agreed today, as neither covered any special new ground despite another big drop in the value of Turkish currency. There were also some unsubstantiated headlines that caused a bit of intraday volatility--but that was mostly limited to Turkish markets. 10yr Treasuries, for instance, were unchanged to slightly weaker . Same story for MBS. Had domestic markets been taking any compelling cues...(read more)

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