9117 Anacapa Bay Pinckney, Michigan 48169

810-231-5050

We Live Here, We Work Here, We Play Here

9117 Anacapa Bay Pinckney, Michigan 48169

810-231-5050

We Live Here, We Work Here, We Play Here

Located at the gateway to the Pinckney & Brighton Rec Area

Up To Date Real Estate News

27 Jan 2020 3:58 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

A lot of expectations and optimism were probably dashed by the December report on new home sales from the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development. Analysts were expecting sales to build on the November seasonally adjusted annual estimate of 719,000 units which was an increase of 1.3 percent from October. Indeed, every prediction from those polled by Econoday was at that level or higher, with a consensus of 728,000 units. Instead, not only did the number fail to reach the bottom of that range, but November's number was revised down substantially. Seasonally adjusted sales during the month were estimated at an annual rate of 694,000 units, a 0.4 percent decline from the new November estimate of 697,000 sales. New home sales activity is still, however, much stronger on an...(read more)

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27 Jan 2020 2:45 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Last week was really the first truly interesting week of 2020 (and arguably of the past several months) as far as the prevailing range in the bond market is concerned. Yields had been narrowing since September and were holding a very tight range since mid-October. By Friday, 2 of the 3 potential boundaries (there are different ways to approach them) were broken by a rally in the bond market. But "broken" is a bit of a subjective term when it comes to following "key levels" or other lines (like moving averages or trend-lines) that a technical analyst might use to interpret bond market momentum. Traditionally, the first move past such a line is referred to as a "test." In other words, bonds are testing their ability to operate on the other side of a line that had...(read more)

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27 Jan 2020 1:23 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Remember when there actually was an “average,” and you weren’t afraid to say that someone was average? Now everyone is “above average.” (Did my sarcasm font come across?) I remember when they weren’t, and also remember when underwriters learned “the five Cs of credit”: capacity, capital, conditions, character, and collateral. In the “capacity” category the press picked up Fair Isaac changing its credit scoring model to FICO 10 later this year . Unless I missed something, the new FICO hasn’t been reviewed yet by Freddie and Fannie , nor the major correspondent nor wholesale investors, nor the major retail lenders. Millions will see their FICO scores decrease, millions will see them increase and thus improve loan program options...(read more)

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24 Jan 2020 11:06 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

We had to wait all the way until January 24th of 2020, but bonds finally offered their first real shred of willingness to challenge the established range of late 2019. When we talk about ranges, we use 10yr Treasuries for these reasons . In 10yr terms, the range has been 1.71 to 1.95%, which is reasonably narrow for a 3 month+ time frame. It looked like the range would be quickly crushed as war with Iran quickly entered the realm of possibility on the night of the missile attacks against Iraqi air bases. But with the de-escalation the following day, the range was actually strongly reinforced. Rates have been trickling since then without more than a 5bp move in 10yr yields until today. That same move also breaks us well below the 1.71% boundary to close at 1.686%. As we often discuss, the first...(read more)

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24 Jan 2020 10:25 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates moved meaningfully lower over the past 2 days as panic over the coronavirus outbreak continues affecting financial markets. If this epidemic ends up being similar to SARS in 2003, it ultimately won't be worth as much of a drop in interest rates as we've seen so far. But the thing about brand new strains of deadly viruses is that neither the market nor the medical community knows exactly how this will unfold. Until that picture becomes clearer, the market is preparing for more dire outcomes. For whatever it's worth, the timeline of the SARS outbreak spanned 2 calendar years (2002 - 2004) but the most notable market impact was confined to the space of a single month (March 2003). We'll be a week into February before the current epidemic reaches a similar milestone. I'm basing that...(read more)

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24 Jan 2020 3:49 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

As the week comes to a close, we find bonds continuing to trickle toward the lower end of the range that has prevailed for nearly 3 months. In terms of 10yr yields, the upper boundary is clearly established at 1.95%. The lower boundary is slightly more open to interpretation, but in any event is somewhere between 1.69 and 1.71. With yields moving down to 1.717% in the first hour this morning, it's time to ask ourselves if we're about to see another range bounce. Frankly, the only reason we wouldn't see such a bounce at this point is that it's too obvious. Econ data at home and abroad has been "OK" or better on average (especially in areas of concern like German manufacturing, which came out better than expected overnight). We're not at war with Iran. The coronavirus...(read more)

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24 Jan 2020 2:44 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Paying bills on time is about to become more important for American consumers, and this as their debt levels are reaching new highs. Fair Isaac Corporation, the company which creates the FICO credit score models, will introduce two new ones this summer, the FICO Score 10, and the FICO Score 10- T. The company says its new models "incorporate trended credit bureau data to further enhance predictive power" and that lenders could reduce defaults by as much as ten percent among newly originated bankcards and nine percent among newly originated auto loans, compared to using FICO's previous models. The reduction , the company says, could be 17 percent for newly originated mortgage loans compared to the version of the FICO Score used in that industry. The trended credit bureau data to which Fair Isaac...(read more)

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24 Jan 2020 1:37 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Yes, the change in FICO scores garnered some attention, but much of the focus is on Wells Fargo which just can’t stay out of the spotlight… for all the wrong reasons. Ten days ago we learned that the Bank had $2.9 billion of income in the fourth quarter in 2019 (and $60 billion of residential origination) but income didn’t meet expectations and the stock sank. Yesterday came news that ex-Wells Fargo leaders are personally facing $59 million in fines. Former CEO John Stumpf agreed to pay a $17.5-million penalty and is banned from the industry . Carrie Tolstedt, who led Wells Fargo’s community bank for a decade, faces a $25-million penalty that the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said could climb higher. The news wasn’t a surprise, but analysts were quick...(read more)

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23 Jan 2020 6:14 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The average interest rate on closed loans inched up in December and the share of those loans that were for refinancing moved lower. Ellie Mae's Origination Insight Report for the month says the average 30-year fixed rate in December rose to 3.99 percent from 3.97 percent in November and the year's low of 3.93 percent in September. The refinance share across all mortgage products declined from 49 to 46 percent. The share of loans that were originated for FHA rose 1 percentage point to 17 percent in December, taking that point from Conventional loans which dipped to a 70 percent share. The portion of VA loans was unchanged at 9 percent. Adjustable rate mortgages accounted for 5.5 percent or originations. The time to close loans rose to the longest periods of the year , averaging 48 days for all...(read more)

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23 Jan 2020 3:25 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Even though many of the measures are already at record lows, mortgage delinquencies continue to tick downward according to Black Knight's "first look" at December loan performance data. At the same time, the Single Month Mortality (SMM) rate, an indicator of mortgage loan prepayments, continues to increase, but at a slower rate. Mortgage delinquencies fell by 3.75 percent from November to December and were down 12.43 percent compared to December 2018. At the end of the month there were 1.80 million loans that were 30 days or more past due, although not in foreclosure, 3.40 percent of all mortgaged homes. That delinquency rate is 0.04 percent away from the record low set in May 2019. Serious delinquencies declined by 12,000 month over month and 84,000 on an annual basis. At the end of December...(read more)

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23 Jan 2020 3:20 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Did you know that you can vote by smart phone in Seattle ? Did you know that less than 20 percent of the world's population has ever taken a single flight ? (U.S. citizens? About 50%.) Did you know that many economists have forecast that this year will bring neither a recession nor outstanding growth? Market indicators, however, signal strong investor optimism. How about future housing values this year? The Basis Point's latest deep dive on current/future state of home valuations have two major implications for debate and discussion: a hybrid robot/human valuation model makes the system safer than human-only appraisals, and valuations can now power instant home buying, financing, improving. Instant home buying? Push button get mortgage? What if I can't get the movers out to my place for 30...(read more)

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23 Jan 2020 2:13 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The bond market--widely expected to have been launching yields up and over 2% in 2020--is instead in the process of testing it's best levels since early December. This has been made possible by a combination of unexpected bond-friendly factors, or so it would seem. The US/Iran flare-up led the charge early in the month, but most recently it's the Coronavirus outbreak in China. Despite those " risk-off " events, stocks have surged to all-time highs throughout the month even as bond yields have fallen. In other words, it's not a given that those events are entirely to blame for January's decline in yields. This could just be the curve ball that bonds are throwing to start the year--one of those situations where markets were so convinced bonds should do one thing that...(read more)

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22 Jan 2020 9:22 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates remained in line with 3-month lows today for the average lender. Several lenders offered marginally better terms compared to yesterday, but in those cases, the only changes were to the upfront costs associated with the same rates quoted yesterday. It's a pleasant surprise to see rates as low as they are considering several economic reports have been quite strong recently. In general, stronger economic data tends to put upward pressure on rates. That was a risk today with today's Existing Home Sales report coming in at the best levels since early 2018. But econ data isn't the only consideration for the bond market that underlies day-to-day rate movement. Low inflation, geopolitical tensions, and even concerns over the Coronavirus outbreak are just three of many other factors that...(read more)

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22 Jan 2020 4:00 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Existing home sales rose convincingly in December, gaining 3.6 percent compared to sales the prior month. Sales of all existing home types , single-family, townhouses, condos, and cooperative apartments were higher than in November and all posted double digit increases from sales in December 2018. The National Association of Realtors® said home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.54 million units in December compared to 5.35 million units in November. They were up 10.8 percent from the 5.00 million pace in December 2018. Single-family home sales were also solid, posting a gain of 2.7 percent to an annual rate of 4.92 million (compared to 4.79 million in November) and a 10.6 percent change from a year earlier. Condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted...(read more)

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22 Jan 2020 2:56 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The annual rate of home price increases continued at a stable rate in November according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), however there are indications of some acceleration on a shorter-term basis. The FHFA's Housing Price Index (HPI) rose 4.9 percent compared to November of 2018. The annual increase in October was 5.0 percent. On a monthly basis prices rose 0.2 percent from October; however, the 0.2 percent increase originally reported for that month was boosted to 0.4 percent. It was the second month in a row that FHFA has revised the prior month's number higher. For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly house price changes from October 2019 to November 2019 ranged from an 0.1 percent decrease in the Mountain division to an 0.8 percent gain in the East North...(read more)

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22 Jan 2020 2:51 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

You know things are bad when I resort to invoking Kierkegaard in bond market commentary, but that's what it's come to. Our quest to observe something interesting in terms of rate momentum is beginning to feel hopeless. In fact, if someone wanted to be a real whiner about it, they could make a very strong case for another year of sideways momentum, or close to it. They would be like Kierkegaard's Knight of Infinite Resignation (at least I think they would...) I took one philosophy class in college, and the lesson on these 2 stony knights is one of the only things I remember. Basically, one is a pessimist who thinks he's just being a realist. He believes there are solid reasons that he will never win the love of the princess. So he gives up and finds his own sort of peace in that...(read more)

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22 Jan 2020 2:08 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

What does $4.6 billion dollars buy you these days? A couple casinos: a Blackstone-sponsored JV is paying that for MGM Grand and Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas. For that you’ll receive the income from 9,743 rooms, approximately three million square feet of meeting space, and approximately 300,000 square feet of casino space across 226 acres on the Las Vegas Strip . 2,500 miles away, the average price of a newly listed condo in New York rose from $1.15 million in 2011 to $3.77 million in 2019 , but about half of the Manhattan luxury condo units that came on to the market in the past five years are as yet unsold . And NY is losing 300 residents per day. Analysts are quick to remind us that this is not actually a market for people to buy homes but rather for the global wealthy to park money (similar...(read more)

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22 Jan 2020 1:18 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

In its first economic forecast of 2020, Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group is doubling down on its late 2019 predictions. The economists say that " onstruction is poised to become a significant contributor to overall economic growth again," and sets the year's theme as "A Resilient Economy Overcomes Risks to Drive Housing." For the economy as a whole, the ESR says it expects its earlier forecast that fixed business investment would turn positive at the end of last year to finally come about in the current quarter. It also ups its previous 2.3 percent growth in 2019 real gross domestic product (GDP) to 2.4 percent. Its full year 2020 forecast is unchanged at 2.1 percent although stronger growth is now expected at the start of the year. Since the December report three additional...(read more)

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22 Jan 2020 1:04 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The volume of mortgage applications submitted during the week ended January 17 slowed after a strong performance - a 30.2 percent increase - the prior week, but it was only a small decline . The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of that volume, ticked down 1.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis while gaining 0.4 percent unadjusted. Refinancing remained at a high level. The Refinancing Index, while down 2 percent on a week-over-week basis following a 43 percent surge during the week ended January 10, maintained a 116 percent edge over the same week in 2019 . The percentage of all applications that were for refinancing dipped to 61.6 percent of total applications from 62.9 percent the previous week The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased...(read more)

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21 Jan 2020 10:08 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates dropped to begin the holiday-shortened week as markets expressed a bit of panic over the coronavirus outbreak in China. This is similar to the SARS outbreak in 2003, which certainly had an impact on both stocks and bonds. While it's too soon to know if the new iteration of the disease will run a similar course, it's not too soon for markets to begin heading in that direction preemptively. Specifically, fears surrounding the outbreak lead investors to expect commerce, in general, to take a hit. Sure, the average person may not change their daily routine because of Coronavirus, but many will (and have). A decrease in the level of commerce implies lower stock prices. Simultaneously, investors can seek safe havens for their money in the sovereign bond market (such as US Treasuries...(read more)

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21 Jan 2020 5:10 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The share of adults who told the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) they were considering a home purchase in the next year has now fallen year-over-year for the fifth consecutive time. NAHB's survey for its fourth quarter 2019 Housing Trends Report found only 11 percent of its respondents had such plans, a 2-percentage point drop from the survey a year earlier and less than half the share in the fourth quarter of 2017. Rose Quint, writing in NAHB's Eye on Housing blog blamed the steady decline in planned participation on the persistent low levels of housing inventory. Offsetting this discouraging news however is data on both the ages of those who are planning on buying and their current homeownership status. Nineteen percent of Millennials (those born between 1981 and 1996) said they...(read more)

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21 Jan 2020 3:22 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

In addition to being a 4-day trading week due to yesterday's holiday, there's also a general lack of big-ticket economic data on tap. In fact, there isn't a single report that qualifies as "top-tier" in terms of market movement potential and the only candidates that come close are the Markit PMIs on Friday. That's unfortunate because the US bond market is desperately in need of some direction after almost half a year of broad consolidation and 1-3 months of intense consolidation. "Broad" and "intense" are subjective terms, so let's quantify them quickly. In the chart below, the broad consolidation isn't highlighted, but it would begin in the first 2 weeks of September, which marked a much smaller jump between highs/lows than the one seen...(read more)

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21 Jan 2020 2:03 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Everyone is aging, right? “I finally did it! I bought a new pair of shoes with memory foam insoles. No more forgetting why I walked into the kitchen!” People change, populations change, and loan officers must adapt. economists have revised 2020 growth prospects higher and revised down recession probabilities, many economic indicators are positive: consumer spending and confidence is high, unemployment remains low, and inflation is tame. Not only must every lender pay attention to overhead costs, what competitors are doing, customer service trends, and guideline changes from investors, but they must also pay attention to population shifts, forecasts, and business opportunities. For example, more international trade will expand rental and for-sale housing demand in markets dependent...(read more)

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18 Jan 2020 12:16 am

Posted To: MBS Commentary

We've seen a whole lot more movement in the bond market for a whole lot less motivation than we had this week. Back to back econ data shockers (Philly Fed and Housing Starts) were scarcely able to get yields back up to Monday morning's highs, and yields hadn't fallen very much to begin with. In other words: "Housing Starts Surge 40% Annually to The Highest in 13 Years" isn't really a headline that jives with 10yr yields rising less than 2bps by the close of business. Oh, and stocks hit all time highs on 4 out of the 5 days. Oh, and the phase 1 trade deal signing went off without a hitch. All that to say that bonds were more than entitled to end up somewhere other than smack dab in the middle of the consolidation range that's been in effect for close to half a year...(read more)

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17 Jan 2020 11:48 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates moved slightly higher over the past two days as strong economic data and corporate earnings coaxed investors into riskier assets like stocks. Bonds (which dictate interest rates) are always being bought and sold, but demand varies depending on investors' risk appetite. If demand for bonds falls as it has in the 2nd half of this week, rates move higher. Fortunately, this move has been very small in the bigger picture. Mortgage rates, specifically, have moved even less than rates associated with other bonds. The average lender is still able to offer 30yr fixed rates of well under 4% on top tier scenarios. And the average borrower wouldn't see more than 0.00125% of difference from the lowest rates in more than 3 months. Bottom line, while rates are slightly higher than their best...(read more)

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