9117 Anacapa Bay Pinckney, Michigan 48169

810-231-5050

We Live Here, We Work Here, We Play Here

9117 Anacapa Bay Pinckney, Michigan 48169

810-231-5050

We Live Here, We Work Here, We Play Here

Located at the gateway to the Pinckney & Brighton Rec Area

Up To Date Real Estate News

10 Jul 2020 8:46 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

It should no longer come as a surprise that the pandemic continues to create never-before-seen circumstances in all corners of society. Here in the housing and mortgage markets, one of the first major manifestations of the crisis was a quick move to incredibly low rates. With record after record being set in close succession, the mortgage environment has been ridiculously good for most homeowners. For others, it's just been ridiculous. Record low rates make a lot of sense given the economic outlook. In general, economic weakness coincides with lower rates, and there's been plenty of that to go around. On the other hand , much of the economic weakness is assumed to be temporary . How much is anyone's guess, but until we see where those chips fall, both sides of the market (stocks and bonds)...(read more)

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10 Jul 2020 8:28 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Big Scary Reversal in Bonds (Spoiler Alert: It Wasn't That Scary) Just as bonds were settling into a nice new trend toward lower yields, today comes along with the biggest intraday reversal in weeks. But even if the weakness was twice as big, bonds would still be in a great place and we still wouldn't be seeing a major cause for concern. That will change some day, but it didn't change today. Econ Data / Events 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying Core Annual Wholesale Inflation (PPI) 0.1 vs 0.4 f'cast , 0.3 prev Market Movement Recap 08:16 AM Stocks and bond yields both slumped overnight. Once again, bonds continued to improve even as stocks bounced. 10yr yields down 3+ bps at .582 (range floor), and UMBS 2.0 opening up 3 ticks (.09) at 103-03 (103.09). 12:09 PM MBS remaining...(read more)

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10 Jul 2020 1:19 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Black Knight's weekly report on the numbers of mortgage loans in COVID-19 forbearance plans shows that a decline in those numbers of nearly a half million last week. More than 435,000 homeowners exited the plans, the largest drop yet. As of July 7, 4.14 million homeowners were in the plans which allow them to skip or reduce their mortgage payments if they are suffering financial problems due to the pandemic. This represents 7.8 percent of mortgage lenders and just under $900 billion in unpaid principal. This is the smallest number of plans since April 28. Some 6.0 percent of all GSE-backed loans, 1,678,000 in number, and 11.6 percent of all FHA/VA loans (1,399,000) are currently in forbearance plans. Another 1,067,000 or 8.2 percent of loans in private label securities or banks' portfolios...(read more)

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10 Jul 2020 1:07 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Bubonic plague in China ? What’s next, frogs falling from the sky? Water turning into blood, darkness for three days? A big bank requiring $1 million in your account for some retail jumbo refis? Oh wait... that happened . (That’s one way to manage capacity.) Ivy League football has been yanked, and hurricane season is approaching in the Southeast with the periodic rushes to buy plywood and drinking water. We already have our hands full with temporary lay-offs and cutbacks turning into permanent job losses, something that the Federal Reserve has been trying to avoid. For good news, lenders are focused on “tappable” home equity topping $6.5 trillion, which is a record per Black Knight. One official noted that with mortgage interest rates hitting record lows, 90 percent...(read more)

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10 Jul 2020 1:04 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Trend channels in financial markets are some of the most basic forms of analysis. They consist of lines drawn along the highs and lows of a charted security. When parallel lines can be drawn that connect more than a few highs and lows, you have a trend channel! It's even acceptable for the security to break outside the lines here and there if they are still capturing a majority of the bounces. The goal of a trend channel is right in the name: we're trying to capture a general trend that speaks to the pace of improvement or deterioration in any given security. When it came to bonds, 10yr Treasury yields were in a clear trend channel pointing toward gently higher yields for several months recently. They faked a breakout in early June only to return to the previous range and ultimately...(read more)

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09 Jul 2020 8:25 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

There are two kinds of headlines about mortgage rates today: those that rely on the weekly survey-based data published each Thursday by Freddie Mac, and those who rely on the actual daily average rate compiled by Mortgage News Daily. In both cases , the headlines can claim new record low rates, but each source is referring to a different instance of all-time lows. for the average lender. Specifically the all-time lows I told you about on Monday are the same all-time lows Freddie Mac is talking about today (Freddie's survey only covers the first part of any given week and tends to heavily favor Mondays). And the all-time lows I'm talking about today are those that have yet to be captured by Freddie's survey. Indeed, they may not be captured at all if rates happen to move up by the beginning...(read more)

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09 Jul 2020 8:23 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Credit tightening is becoming more evident according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Its Mortgage Credit Availability Index fell to a reading of 125.0 in June, a loss of 3.3 percent . A decline in the index indicates stricter lending standards. Joel Kan, MBA's Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting explained. "Mortgage credit supply dropped again in June, as investors further reduced their willingness to purchase jumbo loans and those with lower credit scores. Lenders are navigating a gradual economic and housing market recovery that is still facing headwinds from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The overall credit availability index decreased 3.3 percent to its lowest level since April 2014 , with all of the sub-indexes falling to lows not seen since 2014-2015...(read more)

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09 Jul 2020 8:03 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds Making a Case For a New Trend We've talked a lot about the linear uptrend in bond yields that began in April. It was defeated by the end of June and bonds began drifting sideways. But now they may be making a case for a new trend toward lower rates. Econ Data / Events 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying Jobless Claims 1.314m vs 1.375m f'cast, 1.427 prev Continued Claims 18.062m vs 18.95m f'cast, 19,290m prev Market Movement Recap 08:16 AM Once again, stocks and bonds made a modest move to start the overnight session and were then extremely flat since then. MBS starting out up 1 tick (0.03) and 10yr yields are down 1.3bps at .653 11:00 AM Bonds are rallying nicely now as the stock market swan dives. 10yr yields down more than 4bps to .62%+ and UMBS 2.0 up an eight, quickly...(read more)

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09 Jul 2020 2:57 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

A new survey by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) has found that the vast majority of its members feel as though their businesses are back on track. NAR says, "After enduring months of setbacks brought on by the coronavirus pandemic... more than nine in 10 members believe they are in the process of recovering as many states start to reopen their economies. " Ninety-two percent of the residential and commercial Realtors who responded to the 2020 Market Recovery Survey said that at least a portion of their buyers are back and of those, 18 percent said they never left. Nine percent said all of their buyers had returned with agents in small towns and rural areas more likely to report either no interruption in activity or a more robust return of buyers to the market. "The residential...(read more)

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09 Jul 2020 1:18 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

We've talked a lot about the massive rift that opened up between mortgage rates and MBS yields as the pandemic hit markets several months ago. MBS yield isn't something we've historically focused on largely because it's not important to follow for the purposes of our core audience. But apart from something like 10yr Treasury yields, it provides the least complex comparison between bond market movement and mortgage rates. While the comparison may be relatively simple, the thing itself is less so. If we're talking about the "current coupon" yield (which we need to be in order to examine longer-term relationships between MBS and rates), and given the lack of a liquid discount MBS coupon (i.e. nothing is actually trading under a price of 100.00, which is something...(read more)

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09 Jul 2020 1:16 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

United Airlines may lay off 36,000? Bed, Bath, and Beyond closing 200 stores? Walgreen’s cutting 4,000? Yup. Lower rates won’t save those jobs, but we’ll have low rates for a long time. Things are different for residential lenders. When we began 2020, who thought things would be where they are now in our biz to the point of me receiving this note from the CEO of a well-known retail lender: “We’re seeing crazy volumes and profits. Controlling overhead and making money is not our problem. My LOs have been working twelve hours a day, seven days a week, as have processors and many of my Ops staff. Burnout is the problem. The days of aggregators pricing servicing at zero are gone, although few want low credit score product, spec pool bids have come roaring back, fears...(read more)

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08 Jul 2020 8:08 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were unchanged today for the average lender. That means they remain at all-time lows that are even lower than the all-time lows seen during the previous 3 business days. Even so, today's underlying market movement might be a bit of a wake-up call for anyone waiting to lock an interest rate. In general, the decision to lock or float a mortgage rate has had low consequences recently. While that will likely continue to be the case until the coronavirus situation meaningfully improves, it doesn't mean we should fall asleep at the wheel. We need to remain vigilant for signs that the most recent all-time low mortgage rates are the last we'll see for months or years. Today served as a fairly non-threatening wake-up call in that regard--at least for those following the intraday movement...(read more)

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08 Jul 2020 8:07 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds Pull Back, But It's Still a Waiting Game Despite some modest weakness to begin the day, bonds remain smack dab in the center of their recent range. We've officially begun the waiting game. Econ Data / Events 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying Market Movement Recap 08:06 AM Bond yields and stock prices were inconsequentially higher overnight and remained very flat throughout Asian and European sessions. MBS starting the day 2 ticks (.06) weaker. 10yr yields up 1.3bps at .653. 10:15 AM Weakness accelerated into the 10am hour, roughly following a stock surge. Bonds seem to be finding support for now though. 10yr yields up 2.3bps at .663 and UMBS 2.0 down an eighth on the day. 01:12 PM Solid defensive stand continues for the bond market after strong 10yr auction. MBS at highs...(read more)

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08 Jul 2020 6:22 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) continued to rebound last month from its sharp retreat to near record lows in the Spring. The Index, based on selected responses to the company's National Housing Survey (NHS) fell an aggregate 29.5 points in March and April, in reaction to the COVID-19 crisis. It added back 4.5 points in May and gained another 9 points in June. The Index is now at 76.5, with four of the six survey components used in the index moving higher. The HPSI however, is still down 15 points from its level in June 2019. Survey respondents expressed a significantly more positive view of homebuying and home selling conditions than in recent months. Sixty-one percent of participants said they thought it was a good time to buy a home and the net positive answers increased...(read more)

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08 Jul 2020 2:44 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Mortgage application volume bounced back into positive territory last week , even though banks and many businesses were closed on Friday for the Independence Day Holiday. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of that volume, was 2.2 percent higher on a seasonally adjusted basis, which included an adjustment for the holiday, from the previous week, although volume was down 8 percent before adjustment. The Refinance Index rose 0.4 percent week-over-week and was 111 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 60.1 percent of total applications from 61.2 percent the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index gained 5 percent week-over-week while declining by the same amount before adjustment...(read more)

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08 Jul 2020 1:57 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Crazy times. Brooks Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Rocket Companies filing for an IPO. Genworth Mortgage Insurance completing an excess of loss reinsurance transaction. It is easy to argue that it is the fear of the virus that is impacting economies around the world, not the virus itself, slowing economies and keeping rates low. People learn to adapt, right? And that encourages a bounce back: “adaptive economic normality.” The virus is certainly pushing the advance of technology in the residential lending industry as individuals, lenders, and title companies have changed ways of doing business. (Here’s how to “Rickroll” your next Zoom meeting . ) Real estate agents have adapted, as have buyers, and sales are strong at reasonable price points. Most housing...(read more)

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08 Jul 2020 12:49 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

There really wasn't much by way of riveting new developments on the radar heading into this week. A smattering of Fed speakers and relatively inconsequential data in early July aren't up to the task of creating big-picture momentum in the age of coronavirus. That's not to say the Fed or the econ data cannot move markets--simply that more important versions would be required. For instance, we would need something like an official Fed policy change or a truly surprising shift in data confirmed across multiple significant reports. That's hard to accomplish with only one significant piece of data this week having already come out on Monday. For bonds (and stocks for that matter), we've officially begun the waiting game. The prelude to this was the April/May push back toward...(read more)

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08 Jul 2020 12:37 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

A study by the Urban Institute (UI) has found a strong correlation between the home price to income ratio in an area and its rate of gentrification. The results are published on UI's Urban Wire blog in a post written by analysts Ellen Seidman, Jun Zhu, and Laurie Goodman. The authors say it is important to understand what increases the pace of gentrification, which they define as how fast high-income homebuyers move into low-income neighborhoods. Using data from the 2018 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act and 2018 American Community Survey data, the researchers examined the movement of high-income borrowers into low-income areas and the varying pace of this movement across different metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The focus was on income rather than homebuyers' race or ethnicity as that data...(read more)

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07 Jul 2020 8:28 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Record High MBS Prices, Record Low Rates. What Next? Bonds and rates clearly aren't looking at economic data as a key source of motivation, nor are they playing by the normal set of rules. Coronavirus has rewritten those rules. How long can this all-time-low rate environment last and how do we approach it from a lock/float standpoint? Econ Data / Events 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying Market Movement Recap 08:13 AM Bonds generally improved in the overnight session as stocks lost ground. 10yr yields were as low as .661, but are now back up to .671 in quiet trading. MBS are roughly unchanged to start. 10:02 AM Initial strength in bonds remains, but MBS are outperforming. Last night's prepayment speed report could have something to do with that. UMBS 2.0 coupons are up 6 ticks...(read more)

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07 Jul 2020 8:27 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were already at all-time lows yesterday, and had been holding at those levels for at least 3 business days for the average lender. I normally tell people that mortgage lenders are hesitant to drop rates very aggressively when they're already at all-time lows, and that's always been the case. At least it had been the case before coronavirus. Even then, the past 3 business days were making a similar case. Rates had bottomed out and the broader bond market (which ultimately drives mortgage rates) looked like it preferred a flat trajectory to one that continued to even deeper all-time lows. The bonds that specifically underlie the mortgage market had other ideas . So far this week, they've improved much more noticeably than the bond market's poster child the 10yr Treasury yield....(read more)

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07 Jul 2020 1:48 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Did the housing happy talk just get a little less so? CoreLogic's Housing Price Index Forecast (HPI) over the May 2020 to May 2021 window is seeing more rapid price deceleration in the face of the COVID-19 situation than did their previous 12-month forecast t hat ended in April of next year. In its report last month CoreLogic said it expected that "the housing market may be equipped to lead the broader economy through the recovery" but that home prices increases would slow and that the gain from April to May would be only 0.3 percent. They went on to predict that 2021 would bring the first decline in nine years, and by April 2021 the national price gain would turn negative, down 1.3 percent. Today the company says that pent-up demand and tightening supply continued to prop up home prices in...(read more)

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07 Jul 2020 12:59 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

This morning analysts are talking about the 5 million people of Melbourne, Australia now under a new 6-week lockdown. Lockdown! In this country, we have four long months until the election, with plenty of mudslinging ahead. But here is a short piece on how to think about politics and mortgage origination: “Mortgage Outlook: What if it is Cloudy?” is focused on the current political climate. (Yes, 2020 estimates are in flux.) Focusing on residential lending, yesterday a CEO told me, “If you’re not making money now, go do something else for a living.” All evidence points to a superb 2 nd quarter , and even with the economy contracting over the past few months and millions of borrowers going into forbearance, somehow U.S. mortgage companies are having one of their...(read more)

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07 Jul 2020 12:52 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Conventional wisdom holds that stocks tend to do better when bonds do worse. The logic is simple. When investors feel more optimistic or more risk-tolerant, they're more likely to re-allocate some bond holdings into stocks. When they're fearful and risk-averse, bonds get the nod. The result is short-term correlation between stock prices and bond yields, and we've seen plenty of that as both sides of the market capture investor sentiment surrounding coronavirus numbers. But the important part of this thesis on conventional wisdom is the "SHORT-TERM " caveat. The longer we look back, the more we see stocks and bonds willing to diverge. The most obvious recent example had been a time frame that included the market volatility in March. In that context, bond yields have essentially...(read more)

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06 Jul 2020 7:58 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates barely budged for the third straight day, which is welcome news considering they are at all-time lows. The stability comes in spite of at least two important economic reports that would normally push rates unequivocally higher according to past precedent. These include Thursday's big jobs report and a key barometer of the services sector released this morning. Both pieces of data suggested an economic recovery is well underway. Even though there is certainly a lot more ground to cover before anyone would consider the economy to be "mostly restored' to pre-COVID levels, financial markets are usually willing to reward progress toward such goals. While one might be able to make the case that the stock market is doing just that, the bond market (which dictates interest rates) isn...(read more)

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06 Jul 2020 7:44 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Record High MBS Prices, Record Low Rates. What Next? Bonds and rates clearly aren't looking at economic data as a key source of motivation, nor are they playing by the normal set of rules. Coronavirus has rewritten those rules. How long can this all-time-low rate environment last and how do we approach it from a lock/float standpoint? Econ Data / Events 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying ISM Non Manufacturing 57.1 vs 50.1 f'cast ISM Business Activity 66.0 vs 49.0 f'cast Market Movement Recap 08:18 AM Bond yields and stocks moved higher out of the gate in the overnight session. Both generally remained elevated into the domestic trading hours. 10yr yields are up 2.8bps at .696 and UMBS 2.0 are down just over an eighth of a point. 10:05 AM Brief and limited reaction to ISM...(read more)

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