9117 Anacapa Bay Pinckney, Michigan 48169

810-231-5050

We Live Here, We Work Here, We Play Here

9117 Anacapa Bay Pinckney, Michigan 48169

810-231-5050

We Live Here, We Work Here, We Play Here

Located at the gateway to the Pinckney & Brighton Rec Area

Up To Date Real Estate News

16 Oct 2018 8:30 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The S&P recovered roughly half of its losses from last week today, decisively breaking out of the consolidation pattern that had been in place through this morning. Bonds, on the other hand, are still in the consolidation pattern that accompanied the stock market volatility. In that sense, it was a good day (i.e. no one would have been surprised to see bond yields rise in concert with the big bounce in stocks). Bond traders could be waiting to make their move until tomorrow afternoon's Fed Minutes, or bonds could have simply benefits from a glut of retirement account funding associated with yesterday's tax deadline. Either way, they were clearly not willing to rally in any significant way. We still need to see 10yr yields break below 3.13% and hold those gains for a day or two before...(read more)

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16 Oct 2018 8:11 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates didn't move much today. Some lenders were perfectly unchanged, but the average lender was just slightly higher. That's at odds with underlying bond market movement (which directly impacts rates)--at least at first glance. Specifically, the bonds underlying mortgages were slightly stronger today. That would imply slightly lower mortgage rates. So why did rates rise? As is often the case, today's seemingly paradoxical movement is due to timing . Bonds were weakening ever-so-slightly yesterday--something that's consistent with lenders raising rates. But the bond market didn't weaken enough for lenders to make those changes in the middle of the business day. Additionally, today's bond market improvement didn't really stick until the afternoon. Like yesterday, it wasn't quite enough...(read more)

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16 Oct 2018 2:59 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Recent research from Trulia shows home price reductions are increasing . The share of homes for sale that have had at least one price cut since being listed is the highest since 2014. This, the company says, is more evidence that the market may finally be tilting in homebuyers favor, but the benefits are certainly not evident across the board, or maybe even where they are most needed. During the first part of this year the share of listings with a price changes stayed much as it was in 2017, but then shot up in July and August. When this is coupled with the slowdown in home price growth that has been noted in most indices, and inventories that are finally creeping up, the increase in price cuts, according to Trulia, could be a critical third confirmation that things may finally be shifting...(read more)

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16 Oct 2018 2:54 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Builder confidence ticked up 1 point in October, rising to 68. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), which produces the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) says this measure of confidence levels has held in the high 60s since June. "Builders are motivated by solid housing demand, fueled by a growing economy and a generational low for unemployment," said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel. "Builders are also relieved that lumber prices have declined for three straight months from elevated levels earlier this summer, but they need to manage supply-side costs to keep home prices affordable." The index is derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting among its new home building members for 30 years. Respondents are asked to give their perceptions of the current market for...(read more)

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16 Oct 2018 2:29 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

What’s not being covered by the mainstream press here at the MBA conference? How about, given the rough financial conditions, monthly (and not quarterly) financials being requested by warehouse & correspondents? How about some attendees bunking up two to a room to save money? Lenders trying to hire LOs, but the top LOs not wanting to move as we enter the 4th quarter and companies not wanting to hire the low-producing LOs? Both originators and management saying that regulator-impacted comp plans have continued to cause confusion, inequality, and hasn’t helped the borrower? And perhaps using net, or residual, income instead of gross income in the DTI calculation ahead of the “QM patch” expiring in January 2021? Capital markets In the secondary markets the Agencies...(read more)

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16 Oct 2018 12:40 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Waiting... That's all anyone has been doing since last Thursday in financial markets. One day prior, stocks jumped off a cliff and bond yields raced to the edge of the same cliff and peered over the side. It's like one of those far-fetched movie scenes where the character who apparently just fell to their death is instead clinging to a surprisingly sturdy tree root for dear life. Bonds, on the other hand, may simply be gawking or lowering a rope. Either way, they're not venturing down into that cliff to save stocks--at least not unless stocks slip even farther down. Analogies aside, both sides of the market have been in consolidation mode since last week's stock sell-off. The following chart shows that bond yields have technically edged out of that consolidative range, but we've...(read more)

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15 Oct 2018 9:32 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

This morning's Retail Sales report was arguably the biggest-ticket of the week in terms of economic data. It speaks to the ongoing level of uncertainty that we saw almost no reaction despite a headline of +0.1 vs median forecast of +0.6, at least at first glance. There were some caveats underneath the headline. These included fluctuations in fuel prices as well as a substantial positive revision to last month's numbers. In other words, the data may have actually made a decent enough case for "no reaction" in bonds. Even then, volume was very light and bonds continued looking most willing to take cues from stocks. That said, we can't say that with utter certainty because stocks didn't do much today either (the conclusion is based on the day's shared peaks/valleys...(read more)

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15 Oct 2018 9:13 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

MBA President and CEO Bob Broeksmit, the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA's) newly installed president and CEO, delivered his inaugural speech to MBA's annual convention on Monday, and he appears, at least from his prepared remarks, to be coming out swinging . His address opened with the sentence, "Mortgage market regulations are increasing costs and limiting YOUR ability to serve YOUR customers." After presenting his background in the mortgage industry, Broeksmit went on to detail what he and MBA plan to do about those regulations, noting that new leadership in seven regulatory offices* that oversee the mortgage industry presents new opportunities to educate and inform policymakers. He also said MBA will be working with the new Congress to be elected next month regardless of who wins. The...(read more)

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15 Oct 2018 8:43 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher today, prolonging a 3-day trend of exceptionally light volatility. The 5 days before that (beginning on Wednesday, October 3rd) were completely different, with a huge move higher at first followed by a moderate recovery at the beginning of last week. That recovery largely followed the stock market weakness. Stocks and rates don't always move in the same direction, but when stocks fall as quickly as they did last week, rates usually benefit. After such moves level-off, rates tend to wait for stocks to see if there will be an aftershock or a big bounce. For now, it doesn't look like stocks have made up their mind yet, as they too have continued in a largely sideways pattern during the last 3 trading sessions. Loan Originator Perspective Bond markets...(read more)

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15 Oct 2018 2:27 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Freddie Mac is announcing a couple of enhancements to its Loan Advisor underwriting tool. The additional capabilities will allow lenders to automate the assessment of borrower income and assets to reduce documentation which the company says will significantly speed-up the approval process. There are several components to the advances which the company unveiled at the Mortgage Bankers Associations Annual Convention and Expo in Washington which began on Sunday. Automated collateral evaluation combined with collateral rep and warranty relief Automated assessments for borrowers without credit scores Automated asset and income validation. The automated collateral evaluation has been available in some form previously and with this announcement appears to be extended to condominium units . It is unclear...(read more)

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15 Oct 2018 1:08 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

What’s new here at the MBA’s conference in Washington DC? Plenty of secretive M&A closed-door meetings, continued talk that Ginnie is carefully eying non-bank approved Ginnie issuer’s financial situations, conjecture of MI reps’ jobs in the future if all the MI companies roll out pricing engines, and Fannie & Freddie eliminating some “pricing inefficiencies” to end cherry-picking. The FHFA (overseer of F&F) continue to focus on maintaining access to credit, reduced taxpayer risk, and the infrastructure for a single security. There’s also talk about the BofA/NACA 0% down, 4.5% program . We’re going there again? Products, Services, Books, and Events for Lenders Lendsnap, The Digital Mortgage Company™, is hosting private consultations...(read more)

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15 Oct 2018 1:04 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Before last week's stock rout, bonds were stuck in a rut. For four straight sessions, they hit the highest intraday yields since 2011. Even after the 3rd biggest stock sell-off since the financial crisis, Treasuries were reluctant to rally in any extreme way. Take away the worst yields of the preceding 4 days and the post-rally levels last week would STILL have been the highest since 2011. There's no question that bonds finally acquiesced to stock volatility as a key market mover. That continued to be the case throughout the week. The lower section of the following chart shows the difference in magnitude between the two moves as well as the consolidative patterns that both have carried into the current week. The implication is that this week will be all about resolving these consolidation...(read more)

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12 Oct 2018 11:07 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Referring to the week of bond trading as " crazy " is a bit of a stretch. If we bring stocks into the mix, or if we go back to last Wednesday, it's been a crazy 7 business days (bonds were closed on Monday). As you're well aware, stocks were in the spotlight this week and bonds couldn't have looked much less eager to cheer them on. Granted, bonds did what they were supposed to do--eventually--by rallying in response to a gigantic stock sell-off. But the net effect is that 10yr yields can only say they ALMOST recovered HALF of the ground lost last week. The very lowest yields seen today would have been the highest in 7 years on any other week. But enough of that depressing stuff! We all know this is a rising rate environment. And we also know traders are aware of that fact...(read more)

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12 Oct 2018 10:41 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates held relatively steady today, finally leveling off after two solid days of improvement driven by the week's big stock market sell-off. Stocks and rates don't always move in the same direction at the same time, but when stocks make a big move lower, rates tend to benefit. This week's move lower in stocks was the 3rd largest since the financial crisis. In that light, we only saw a mere token of improvement for mortgage rates, but we'll take what we can get considering it was the only meaningful drop in rates since August 10th. For most of the day, it looked like stocks might head back down, but they recovered in the afternoon. That put an end to the hopes of any more improvement in mortgage rates for this week. Underlying bond markets were quick to follow stocks back in the other...(read more)

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12 Oct 2018 3:35 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Mortgage denial rates ebb and flow with the economy, with lenders appetite for risk, and sometimes with the pressure lenders feel to make loans. Denial rates in 2017 continued to diminish as they have done since the economy began to improve in 2013 and were the lowest in any year since at least 2004. Using data collected from lenders under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA), CoreLogic estimates only about one in ten mortgage applications were denied last year. Poor credit used to be the primary reason that lenders turned borrowers away, but Yanling Mayer, writing in the CoreLogic Insights blog, says that, in the current credit cycle that has changed. The tight inventory of starter and lower-priced homes has pushed the prices of those homes up faster, impacting affordability more on that...(read more)

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12 Oct 2018 1:59 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Is there potential for today to turn into a "black Friday" with catastrophic stock losses that usher in the most amazing bond rally we've seen in years? Sure... that could happen any time, really, depending on the underlying events driving the move. In the current case, it's not highly likely unless we're ready to accept the end of the current economic expansion. That would be hard to do given the current course of economic data. Rather, the big shift in stocks will be reserved for a time when we're also seeing a big enough shift in the underlying data to cool the Fed's rate hike aspirations. This is why people like to blame the Fed for "causing" stock sell-offs, but the fact is that it's the data driving the Fed AND stocks. Based on the trajectory...(read more)

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12 Oct 2018 1:10 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

“Rob, are you hearing about investors taking more of a hard line on every issue right now? In recent years they would give an extra day, or waive something, but they are not doing this right now.” Yes, I am hearing that, and that “hard line” approach impacts the primary markets as well, and LOs should set borrower expectations. The “big guys” are testing the security market right now. (See the capital markets section for an interesting review of Wells’ deal.) Remember that in recent years plenty of securitizers have lost billions in fees and settlements due to loans in securities not being what they represented and want to avoid that at all costs. You can’t blame them dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s. Hopefully minor issues, unlike...(read more)

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12 Oct 2018 12:48 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Want to get that reluctant customer who has been "about to" buy a home for months a little push? If an analysis by the Urban Institute (UI) as reported in Freddie Mac's Homeownership blog is on target, your best marketing tool might be available at the local animal shelter. Admittedly that is a bit of a stretch, but here's the rationale. Both the 2013 and the 2017 American Housing Surveys (AHS), asked respondents "would you need help with your pets in case of a disaster?" Respondents had the option to say if they did not own a pet. The question is obviously meant for planning purposes for communities as they prepare emergency plans, but UI looked at responses from a different perspective. Freddie Mac says what UI found isn't too surprising. Pet ownership is at its highest when the head of household...(read more)

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12 Oct 2018 12:26 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports a drop in applications for the purchase of newly constructed homes last month. Those applications fell by 3.9 percent compared to August although they remained 8.2 percent higher than they were the previous September. The change does not reflect any seasonal adjustment. The information comes from MBA's Builder Application Survey (BAS) which is conducted among the mortgage subsidiaries of new home builders. Based on the survey data as well as other marketing data, MBA projects that new home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 643,000 units. The seasonally adjusted annual number in August was 669,000. On an unadjusted basis, MBA estimates that there were 50,000 new home sales in September 2018, a decrease of 5.7 percent from...(read more)

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11 Oct 2018 10:16 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds rallied today, eventually. Most of the session was fairly flat with the afternoon bringing most of the rally thanks to another sell-off in stocks. This time, the stock losses were more measured, but only relative to days like yesterday. On a normal week, today's stock losses would have been huge. The fact that bonds only gained as much as the did is telling, and probably grounds for concern about the sustainability of the move. As much as it pains me to say it, bonds have their widest eye on stocks at the moment. The uncertainty of the day's stock momentum prevented any bond trading aspirations during the morning hours, despite the fact that weaker core inflation justified a rally. Think about it this way: bonds already got to rally quite a bit yesterday, well before the inflation...(read more)

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11 Oct 2018 9:08 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates fell today as the stock market sell-off remained in focus. Stocks and rates certainly don't have a linear and predictable relationship, but when stocks move lower as quickly as they have over the past 2 days, rates tend to see at least some benefit. Even though yesterday's stock sell-off was much worse, today was a better day for rates due to timing. Simply put, the mortgage market didn't have quite enough time to adjust to the move in stocks before the close of business. Lenders who did change rates yesterday were somewhat conservative with those changes in the event stocks bounced back in a major way. When stocks failed to improve overnight, mortgage lenders passed along more of the improvements seen in the underlying bond market. The average lender is now offering rates that...(read more)

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11 Oct 2018 1:25 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Anything more than 20 points is a big day of selling in terms of the S&P, but that's a small enough number to be relatively common, periodically. From there, a sell-off of more than roughly 33 points becomes much less common. By the time we're talking about anything over 50 points, examples are limited to only a handful every year (and NONE from August 2011 through August 2015). Sell-offs of more than 80 points have occurred exactly 3 times during the recovery from the Great Recession--all of them in 2018--and yesterday was one of them. The other two 80+ point S&P sell-offs were back in February, and we can basically throw the 2nd one out as being driven by whipsaw that was part of the same sell-off (aka, stocks bounced bigly on the way down and then returned for only a bit...(read more)

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11 Oct 2018 1:04 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

We’re in the middle of mortgage conference season. (Are there any apple orchards left with all the applewood smoked bacon served at breakfasts?) The MBA’s National Conference begins Saturday - yes, nearly every conference eats into the weekend – and attendees will be watching the LTV (lender to vendor) ratio. Plenty of vendors are merging or partnering, raising money, offering new products – lots of news below. And in legal news, there’s even an app that lets people sue anyone! Great – just what we need, huh? Lender Products and Services Royal Pacific Funding (RPF) is offering its broker partners more value to their borrowers. RPF will apply a credit at closing for your borrower equal to a free appraisal (up to $500) on all purchase and refinance transactions...(read more)

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10 Oct 2018 10:35 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Remember last Wednesday? Rather forget it? Yeah, me too. That was the day that bond yields spiked last week. The size and speed of the move was out of line with any of the common explanations. These things happen, of course, and when they do, it's best to focus on what's true and to admit that no one should even be able to know why everyone is making every trade in any given market. Yet that's exactly what tends to happen when volatility strikes the stock market. Today was the stock market's turn to have its explanation-defying selling spree, and it made last week's bond move look a bit tame by comparison. The financial media--respected or otherwise--had a field day with it. But it wasn't the kind of field day that was fun and exciting. Rather, it was hard to watch ...(read more)

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10 Oct 2018 9:58 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates are based on mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which are essentially bonds. Conventional wisdom holds that stocks and bonds supplement one another, and that as "money moves in" to one side of the market, it will move out of the other. Conventional wisdom is super duper wrong! If conventional wisdom held true today, we would have seen a very big move lower in rates. The massive sell-off in stocks means there was a huge amount of cash looking for a new home. While it's true that some of this cash did find its way into the bond market, the amount doesn't even begin to compare. By the end of the day, the bonds most closely tied to mortgage rates had barely reentered positive territory. Due to the timing of the afternoon market volatility, many mortgage lenders were still showing...(read more)

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