9117 Anacapa Bay Pinckney, Michigan 48169

810-231-5050

We Live Here, We Work Here, We Play Here

9117 Anacapa Bay Pinckney, Michigan 48169

810-231-5050

We Live Here, We Work Here, We Play Here

Located at the gateway to the Pinckney & Brighton Rec Area

Up To Date Real Estate News

05 Jun 2020 8:04 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

That Escalated Quickly, But MBS Recovered Fairly Nicely After weeks and weeks (6, to be specific) of extraordinarily calm and narrow trading ranges in ultra-low-yield territory, the bond market has suddenly decided it's time to jump back up toward higher yields. The move is fairly large, abrupt, and serious. It was made all the more serious by the most terribly botched NFP forecast in history. So are the good times over? Econ Data / Events 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying Nonfarm Payrolls: +2.509m vs -8.000m forecast (biggest beat ever, by a wide margin) Unemployment Rate: 13.3% vs 19.8% forecast, 14.7% previously Market Movement Recap 08:16 AM More pain overnight as the broad recovery mentality barrels ahead at full throttle. Stocks surged. Bonds utterly capitaluated (there was...(read more)

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05 Jun 2020 5:39 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

A joint release from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) and the Conference of State Bank Supervisors cautions mortgage servicers about their obligations in complying with the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act. The Act includes provisions granting a right to forbearance to mortgaged homeowners impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Under these provisions, servicers of federally-backed mortgages including those from the GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as FHA, the VA, and USDA must grant forbearance to borrowers with pandemic-related hardships for as long as two consecutive 180-day periods during the National Emergency declared in response to the outbreak. Servicers are advised by CFPB and the Supervisors that they can approve a shorter than 180-day plan...(read more)

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05 Jun 2020 4:25 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Things are quickly getting interesting for mortgage rates , and by 'interesting,' I mean potentially alarming. Everything's relative though, so it should be said right up front that the average mortgage rate is still only a hop and a skip from the all-time lows seen last week. But the recent past and present are old news when it comes to discussing rates and financial markets, right?! We want to know what the future holds! Up until this week, there was a fairly even balance of opinion among analysts, economists, and mortgage market stakeholders. It was and still is perfectly valid to believe rates have an equal chance of pecking away at new all-time lows versus embarking on a journey back toward much higher levels. That said, those who saw equal chances of higher vs lower rates are being forced...(read more)

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05 Jun 2020 3:19 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The number of mortgages in forbearance plans declined this past week for the first time since the CARES Act to address the COVID-19 pandemic was enacted. Black Knight said its survey showed that there were 4.73 million homeowners, 8.9 percent of those with mortgages, in forbearance plans as of June 2. This is a net decrease of 34,000 loans since May 28. The number of approved plans, which allow homeowners to temporarily suspend or reduce mortgage payments if they are financially impacted by the pandemic, decreased by 43,000 among mortgages being serviced for Ginnie Mae (VA, FHA, and USDA loans) and the GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. However, the number of forborne loans serviced for others, such as private label securities or portfolio lenders grew by 9,000 loans. Black Knight's survey tracks...(read more)

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05 Jun 2020 1:01 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Change is certainly constant. “And just like that, every reporter has gone from infectious disease expert to civil rights attorney.” In our biz, if you didn’t make money in the first quarter, you should have made some changes. The MBA tells us that independent mortgage banks and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks reported a net gain of $1,600 on each loan they originated in the first quarter, up from $1,182 per loan in the fourth quarter. Impac Mortgage? Heading back into the game . Changes continue in the secondary markets. Mortgage rates and programs are determined by investor demand, and pay-ups for specified pools (where investors pay up for certain loan amounts, geographic concentration, or credit scores) are coming back into vogue, as is talk of low credit score...(read more)

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05 Jun 2020 12:18 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

After weeks and weeks (6, to be specific) of extraordinarily calm and narrow trading ranges in ultra-low-yield territory, the bond market has suddenly decided it's time to jump back up toward higher yields. The move is fairly large, abrupt, and serious. But why? The longer a trading range remains as narrow as the one just witnessed, the bigger the risks become that "something else" will happen. There are really only 2 choices when it comes to departing a narrow, sideways range. Yields were either going to move higher or lower. I won't say that one of those eventualities was more likely than the other, but the weakness we're seeing was certainly more likely in the event that incoming data (either about covid numbers or economic recovery) was markedly stronger than expected...(read more)

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04 Jun 2020 8:17 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates are directly tied to the bond market. This isn't too much of a surprise considering pretty much anything with an interest rate can be traced back to the bond market. Mortgages are especially relevant though, considering they comprise a very large dollar amount of the debt that's bought and sold in the market every day. In order to be bought and sold in financial markets, mortgages are grouped together based on shared characteristics, and those groups effectively become bonds . Those bonds then offer an alternative to other bonds like US Treasuries or investment grade corporate bonds. In this arena, US Treasuries are king . They are the first to feel the effects of something that helps or hurts the overall bond market. Many other types of bonds take cues from Treasuries. Mortgage...(read more)

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04 Jun 2020 8:15 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Big Risks Ahead For Rates and Some Solid Opporunities Right Now Treasury yields broke one important ceiling yesterday (.74%) and another today at .79% before finding support at .823%. This leaves them at the highest levels since late March and in danger of moving higher. Mortgage rates have been outperforming, but they're not immune from the risks. Econ Data / Events 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying Jobless Claims 1.877m vs 1.800m f'cast Continued Claims 21.487m vs 20.838m previous Market Movement Recap 08:07 AM Only modestly weaker overnight with no major reaction to the first phase of the European Central Bank announcement. The press conference is yet to come. Treasury yields continue holding under yesterday's highs. MBS are opening roughly unchanged, but haven't...(read more)

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04 Jun 2020 6:11 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The Urban Institute says that homes categorized as low priced, that is in the bottom 20 percent of the distribution, appreciated 126 percent between the turn of the century and the end of 2019. During that same 20-year period, those in the top 20 percent of the price distribution increased only 87 percent . An analysis of 285 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) by Jung Hyun Choi, John Walsh, and Laurie Goodman found that rapid employment growth combined with supply constraints from zoning and other regulations was one driver of this disproportionate price growth on the low end. Those MSAs with the greatest constraints on housing inventory experienced the greater price growth on the low end relative to the high. They measured this using two indices, Wharton Residential Land Use Regulatory...(read more)

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04 Jun 2020 1:03 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Yesterday afternoon my cat Myrtle was watching me mop the kitchen floor. (Hey, it’s not going to mop itself, right? And it is mildly amusing to use certain products – insert slogan contest here for 4 th grade humor.) While toiling, besides thinking about how much of a raise I am going to give the housecleaner, and the potential 20% unemployment rate to be announced tomorrow, I was ruminating on how residential lending continues to be altered. For example, not only is National MI selling stock , but residential mortgages have created an increase in mortgage market share for credit unions and have become the main catalyst for overall loan growth at credit unions for Q1 2020. And Reverse Mortgage Insight tells us that Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) endorsements more than tripled...(read more)

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04 Jun 2020 12:50 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Yesterday's econ data caused a stir in the bond market, forcing yields to break above a key ceiling at .74%. Can they make it back below that ceiling today or will things go from bad to worse with a break of the next important ceiling at .79%? The following chart shows the recent drama (I adjusted the lines just slightly to account for the past few days of movement. They now rest perfectly on closing highs and lows. That means red candlesticks may be below the bottom line and green candlesticks may be above the top line as long as the top of a red candlestick or the bottom of a green one is inside the trend). Notice the head-fake breakout late last week and the quick reversal that has followed. Notably, without yesterday's trading session, there wouldn't be any drama here to discuss...(read more)

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03 Jun 2020 7:54 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Econ Data Causing Bonds to Reconsider Commitment to Super Low Yields Bonds haven't been interested in econ data because none of it has had the ability to tell much of a story. Today's ADP Employment report is arguably an exception as it was staggeringly stronger than expected. Other data surprised to the upside, stocks set more multi-month highs, and bonds suddenly find themselves on the run. Econ Data / Events 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying ADP Employment: -2.760m vs -9.000m f'cast, -19.557m prev ISM Non-Manufacturing 45.4 vs 44.0 f'cast, 41.8 previously Factory Orders -13.0 vs -14.0 f'cast Market Movement Recap 08:35 AM Bonds were modestly weaker overnight and are now under additional pressure after the much stronger-than-expected ADP Employment Report. 10yr...(read more)

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03 Jun 2020 7:52 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were decisively higher today as the bond market lost ground due to surprisingly strong economic data. Mortgage rate movement is mainly a factor of mortgage bond prices. In turn, mortgage bonds tend to move in broadly the same direction as the US Treasury market. That's why so many people think mortgage rates are based on 10yr Treasury yields. It wouldn't matter either way today as both mortgage bonds and Treasuries lost ground quickly after several economic reports came out much stronger than expected. Taken together, the reports (which still suggest the economy is heavily affected by covid-related shutdowns) point to an economic recovery that may be underway sooner and in healthier fashion than economists expected. Part of the reason rates have been as low as they are is the...(read more)

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03 Jun 2020 1:23 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

It's the first Wednesday of the month and thus time for ADP Employment data. The stated intention of this report is to predict the final revision of the official nonfarm payroll (NFP) count in the big jobs report that follows 2 days later. Because of its connection to NFP, ADP payroll data has been a very big market mover at times. But because NFP counts and revisions have often defied logic , ADP (which is arguably in a much better position than the US government to keep a timely and accurate finger on the pulse of payrolls) has also been called into question in terms of relevance. Despite that, a BIG beat or miss in the ADP data has always been worth something to the bond market--at least during times where the bond market is tuned in to payrolls counts. Now today, we have the biggest...(read more)

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03 Jun 2020 1:10 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

From the Bay Area Marcus L. writes, “I miss the days when Tiger King was the most controversial thing going on.” Everything is a controversy these days, including where the real estate market is heading. Supply is limited, demand is decent, case closed. Things are re-opening, but can people qualify for a loan? It is almost as if prognosticators (not procrastinators) want their forecasts to materialize right away. Many real estate markets around the nation were under-supplied going into the shutdown in mid-March, especially in low and mid-price levels. There wasn’t a lot of speculation taking place, and ATR was in place. Few will argue that the quality of borrowers was very good, and continues to be. But some prognosticators expect house price declines to be very possible once...(read more)

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03 Jun 2020 12:27 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Refinancing volume continued to slide but purchase mortgage activity partially compensated during the holiday shortened week that ended May 29. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, probably due to the holiday, the Index was down 14 percent. Refinancing slipped another 9 percent although it remained 137 percent higher than the same week one year ago. Over the last seven weeks the Refinancing Index has lost an aggregate of 30 percentage points. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 59.5 percent of total applications from 62.6 percent the previous week. The Purchase Index posted its seventh straight...(read more)

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02 Jun 2020 7:50 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were mixed today with some lenders improving and others moving higher. This isn't so much a factor of anything that happened today as much as it is about what lenders did yesterday. Specifically, the bond market (which underlies rate movement) was stronger in the afternoon. This meant that mortgage lenders could adjust yesterday's mortgage rates slightly lower. Some of them did. Some of them didn't. Simply put, lenders who kept rates unchanged yesterday afternoon were able to offer slightly lower rates today. Lenders who dropped rates yesterday were forced to increase slightly. In the bigger picture, we're not talking about substantial movement. The average homeowner (or prospective homeowner) will be seeing rates that are effectively at all-time lows , albeit with closing costs...(read more)

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02 Jun 2020 7:11 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Here's The Only Reason Mortgage Rates Have Moved Lower Recently "Because they were so much higher than they should have been in March and April..." Seriously, that's the reason mortgage rates have been able to move lower even as Treasury yields and MBS prices suggest moderately higher rates. We discuss this in greater detail in the video and in the Day Ahead. Econ Data / Events 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying Market Movement Recap 08:20 AM Treasuries were stronger in Asia but yields moved higher during European hours. Equities markets at home and abroad generally followed the same pattern (i.e. prices were lower in Asia and higher in Europe). MBS are starting the day an eighth of a point weaker. 12:38 PM For the 2nd day in a row, the close of European markets is...(read more)

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02 Jun 2020 3:02 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

CoreLogic's report on April home prices, the first for that month, says that despite fears that home prices would "bottom out like they did in the Great Recession," they continued to accelerate reaching their highest annual growth since August 2018. The U.S. CoreLogic HPI was up 5.4 percent compared to April 2019, with gains in all states and rose 1.4 percent compared to the previous month. Purchase activity, particularly among millennials, bounced back in April as the economy began to open back up. Gains were also driven by low inventory of homes especially at the entry level. Those plummeted by 25 percent on average nationally. However, the company cautions that the economic effects of the recession will continue to make themselves known over the next 12 to 18 months - and it expects that...(read more)

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02 Jun 2020 1:20 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today is the lightest of the week in terms of scheduled market movers on the econ calendar (there really aren't any to speak of unless you count the New York ISM data and we barely do). In addition, bonds are fairly flat in the bigger picture. Point being: we're waiting on inspiration , and we're not even sure where it will come from. The best guess on the inspiration front is that next Wednesday's Fed announcement will bring some more meaningful trading both before and after, but it's more than a week away. In the meantime, we can watch the same ranges we've been watching. 10yr yields remain squarely range-bound after breaking below the uptrend that had been intact for more than a month. As I said yesterday, we should view that breakout as a vote to remain in the range...(read more)

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02 Jun 2020 12:34 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Curfews and civil unrest have replaced COVID in the news. Meanwhile, investors are watching record low debt issuance yields from companies like Amazon and Costco (1.50-1.62 percent 10-year notes, lowering their cost of capital dramatically). Low rates for a mortgage these days are certainly more common than finding a jumbo investor offering a 20 percent down product. And those rates could be with us for a long time, impacting LO business and servicing values. Many believe that the Federal Reserve will basically repeat its “postcrisis playbook” from ten years ago and leave the overnight Fed Funds rate near zero for several years. A spike in inflation has not been an issue for decades. (In fact, consumer price increases have been very steady .) What may not be steady is individual...(read more)

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02 Jun 2020 12:21 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Overall spending on construction fell in April, down 2.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.346 trillion from 1.387 trillion. This still left the rate 3.0 percent higher than it was in April 2019. On a non-adjusted basis, spending was $110.492 billion compared to $107.758 billion in March and 106,786 the previous April. Thus far in 2020, spending has totaled $412.465 billion, a 7.1 percent increase from the year-to-date (YTD) spending in 2019. Privately funded construction was at an annual rate of $1.004 trillion, down 3.0 percent from the $1.036 trillion rate in March, but still up 3.8 percent from the expenditures a year earlier. On an unadjusted basis spending was a tad higher than in March, $83.865 billion compared to $83.654 billion, At $318.110 billion, however, spending...(read more)

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01 Jun 2020 8:43 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates pulled off a repeat performance of last Friday's intraday drama. The average lender began the day in higher territory as bond markets were weaker in the morning. Bonds recovered nicely and mortgage lenders were more than willing to adjust rate sheets accordingly. After being in slightly weaker shape compared to Friday's latest levels, the average lender was noticeably better than Friday by the end of the day. What does "noticeably better" look like in objective terms? Depending on your existing rate and scenario, it might not look like much. The industry is pecking away at an all-time low rate range. Progress at these levels will continue to come in bits and pieces. Most prospective borrowers would see this change in the form of lower upfront costs to the tune of 0.1-0.2% of...(read more)

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01 Jun 2020 6:57 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

There's no way to predict the future for rates and markets, but there are occasionally tactical opportunities. Today's version involves lenders being forced to price rate sheets when MBS had just swung down to the lowest levels of the day. Prices have since bounced. If they were to hold here, lenders have 2 choices: offer improved pricing this afternoon or tomorrow morning. Econ Data / Events 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying ISM Manufacturing: 43.1 vs 43.6 f'cast, 41.5 prev Market Movement Recap 10:06 AM: Flat at roughly unchanged levels out of the gate, then MBS tanked (moderately) and Treasuries tanked modestly. A portion of that weakness has been recovered in MBS, but Treasuries remain near higher yields. 12:31 PM: Treasuries jumping in with some gains of their own now at the end...(read more)

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01 Jun 2020 4:03 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

As was reported last week, new home sales in April were much, much better than expected. There may or may not be a cause and effect going on here, but two recent posts in the National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB's) Eye on Housing blog indicate that builders are at least trying to preserve some market momentum. While builder confidence cratered in April and housing starts declined, Rose Quint reports that there is anecdotal evidence that builders were lowering the prices of newly constructed homes in April and that more than half report making sales accommodations in May. The latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) survey shows that about 22 percent of builders cut home prices in April 2020 in order to bolster sales and/or limit cancellations. Regionally, builders in the South...(read more)

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