9117 Anacapa Bay Pinckney, Michigan 48169

810-231-5050

We Live Here, We Work Here, We Play Here

9117 Anacapa Bay Pinckney, Michigan 48169

810-231-5050

We Live Here, We Work Here, We Play Here

Located at the gateway to the Pinckney & Brighton Rec Area

Up To Date Real Estate News

13 Sep 2019 7:17 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were already having their worst week since 2016 as of yesterday afternoon. Rather than help to heal some of the damage, today's bond market momentum only made things worse . Whether we're looking at 10yr Treasury yields a broad indicator of longer-term rates or average mortgage lender offerings, this week now ranks among the top 3 in the past decade in terms of the overall move higher. At this point, we'd have to go back to the trauma of 2013's 'taper tantrum' to see anything bigger. Few, if any, news articles or various mortgage rate indices have had a chance to catch up with the move. This is especially true of the widely cited Freddie Mac data that circulated yesterday. It indicated a 0.06% increase in rates from the previous week. It was already significantly outdated by...(read more)

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13 Sep 2019 2:08 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The California Building Industry Association (CBIA) is calling the Trump Administration tariffs the "perfect storm" for the state's already troubled housing industry. The Association says tariffs, which have impacted the price of appliances, certain countertops, some items made of lumber, steel and aluminum, and miscellaneous other items, have driven up the cost of an average-size new home in California by $20,000 to $30,000. The concern of the California organization was echoed by David Logan, the National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB's) director of Tax and Trade who said, "All the stars aligned for the worst outcome." He warns that the long-term effects of these tariffs could choke off new construction , and they're leading builders to focus on catering to people with higher incomes...(read more)

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13 Sep 2019 12:49 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Any month that starts on a Sunday contains a Friday the 13th. The superstitious sufferers of “triskaidekaphobia” try to avoid bad luck by keeping away from anything numbered or labelled thirteen, while others, such as some attorneys for whatever reason, believe it to be lucky. But some companies and manufacturers often use another way of numbering or labelling to avoid the number: see if your airplane has a 13th row or your building a 13th floor. (Who says you don’t learn anything from reading this commentary?) Wells Fargo, which has managed to stay out of lawsuit headlines as of late, didn’t have any luck yesterday when California filed support for Oakland in a Wells Fargo mortgage suit for discriminating against, or giving higher cost mortgages to, minorities. Lawyer...(read more)

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13 Sep 2019 12:36 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

In the day just passed, bonds got our hopes up early with an initially positive reaction to the ECB announcement. We were even in the green for most of Draghi's press conference, but heading into 9:30am, the tone began to change. Ultimately, 10yr yields ran up to the highest point in what I would consider to be the new range established with August's big rally. I provided a recap of my thoughts on 1.80% as an important pivot point in yesterday's last post (click it to go there). In the day ahead, bonds will see if they can hold on to the broader range as they begin the day right in line with the highs. On a positive note, the pace of selling appears to be slowing over the past few days. On a negative note, there's really not much track record for yields above 1.80% recently...(read more)

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12 Sep 2019 10:18 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

10yr yields hit 1.80% today. Using the power of the MBS Live search feature, I compiled the following list to put 1.80% in context: "I'd be looking at 1.80% in 10yr yields as the first threshold of concern. We could weaken as much as we want under that level and it wouldn't even be a mild concern. " - 8/6/19 "yields couldn't make it up and over 1.80% before the consolidation momentum kicked in." (referenced as top of the new sideways range) 8/12/19 "Whenever traders feel utterly confident that the near-term bottom is in, we should see some more meaningful momentum toward higher rates. But until we're moving well above 1.62% and more officially, 1.79%, it's not "over." That's simply how big the selling pressure could be if an average...(read more)

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12 Sep 2019 9:21 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates didn't have a great day today, moving even higher from what were already the worst levels in a month as of yesterday afternoon. In and of itself, this single day wasn't any more dramatic than the average "bad day," but taken together with the past 3 days and the assessment is more grim. Simply put, this is now the worst week for mortgage rates since the 2016 presidential election. If that seems way too depressing, don't worry, I have a counterpoint for you! Each of the 3 weeks before that saw at least one day of mortgage rates at their lowest levels in 3 years. These also happened to be 3 of the most stable weeks that rates have ever enjoyed when holding so close to long-term lows. The typical pattern is for a quick run down followed by a similarly quick jump back up. For instance...(read more)

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12 Sep 2019 3:35 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) says its Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) suffered its largest decline in eight months in August. The Index fell 3.9 percent to 181.7, MBA says this indicates that credit is tightening. The MBA announcement comes on the heels of Fannie Mae's release of its third quarter Lenders' Sentiment Survey in which there was a substantial net increase in lenders responses that credit had tightened over the last three months and was expected to continue. All four of MBA's index components indicated a decline in credit access. The Conventional MCAI dropped 3.6 percent and the Government MCAI fell 4.1 percent. The two sub-components of the Conventional index, The Conforming and the Jumbo MCAI's were down by 4.3 and 3.2 percent respectively. "Credit supply declined...(read more)

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12 Sep 2019 1:25 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

In the day just passed, the recent bond market selling-spree showed its first serious signs of leveling off since it began one week ago. This wasn't as triumphant is it sounds, however. Treasuries were unwilling to follow European bond yields lower in the early morning hours. Furthermore, after the very decent 10yr Treasury auction at 1pm, bonds were again unwilling to make noticeable improvements. In short, bonds looked to be taking their seats ahead of today's much-anticipated ECB announcement and press conference. In the day ahead, bonds will see how well they can hold the gains that have arrived in the wake of a generally friendly ECB announcement ( read the update on MBS Live ). A policy rate cut and re-upping of the ECB's bond buying program helped push 10yr yields down to...(read more)

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12 Sep 2019 1:02 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

I apologize in advance for the length of today’s commentary, but there’s a lot going on! Ask any economist if rent control works, and they’ll say, “No.” But that didn’t stop California’s Assembly from voting in state-wide rent control which the Governor is expected to sign. In terms of pure supply and demand, wanna buy a church ? Go ahead and deny that attendance of religious activities is down, but the decline in parts of the U.S. has led to a glut of religious buildings hitting the market as churches and religious schools fold, move, or attempt to offload underused facilities. In the past five years, 6,800 religious buildings have changed hands , and currently there are roughly 1,400 for sale . Some will go private, becoming coffee shops, apartments...(read more)

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12 Sep 2019 12:18 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Mortgage application fraud declined in the second quarter of this year. CoreLogic's report on the incidence says that one out of every 123 mortgage applications submitted during the quarter (0.81 percent) had a fraudulent component compared to one in 109 (0.92 percent) in the second quarter of 2018. This is a decline of 11.4 percent. The company said it was the first decrease in the index since the third quarter of 2016 and attributed it to the strong spike in lower risk refinance originations. New York, Florida, and New Jersey remain the top states for fraud, with New Jersey moving from second to third place. Occasions of fraud were up 8 percent on an annual basis in New York and 9 percent in Mississippi. The remaining top ten states had stable or decreasing risk. Risk increased the most in...(read more)

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11 Sep 2019 9:30 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bond traders took a break from their newfound hobby of the past 5 business days: relentlessly selling bonds . Maybe they want to branch out and try new things. Maybe they were just a little tired of all the selling. Or maybe they had hit their pre-ECB selling goals just a bit early. Tomorrow's European Central Bank (ECB) announcement is definitely worth considering as a potential flashpoint. With heavy expectations for significant stimulus and rate cut overtures on multiple occasions since the last meeting, the sudden ramp up in ECB-related doubts (i.e. will they cut as much as we thought? Will they announce any new bond buying) may indeed have the bond market on edge. To whatever extent that's the case, we'll know it tomorrow, and today's sideways grind would make even more...(read more)

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11 Sep 2019 9:04 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged today for the average lender as underlying bond markets finally calmed down. Over the past few days, bond yields have been rising quickly, effectively correcting from the lowest levels in more than 3 years. The same is true for mortgage rates with the average conventional 30yr fixed quote hitting 1-month highs yesterday and holding in the same territory today. One school of thought behind the recent rate drama is that the bond market is apprehensive about upcoming central bank policy announcements, both from Europe (ECB) and the US (the Fed). The ECB announcement is tomorrow morning, so it could make some sense to see bonds level-off in advance of the first central bank flashpoint. This means there's high potential for volatility tomorrow, but the Fed announcement...(read more)

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11 Sep 2019 2:35 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Mortgage lenders reflected a lot of optimism about their business prospects in the third quarter Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey conducted by Fannie Mae. This is in sync with a report late last month from the Mortgage Bankers Association which reported greatly increased profitability on the part of mortgage banks in the second quarter. Now lenders have told Fannie Mae they expect this trend to continue. The net profit margin outlook found by the survey was at an all-time high, surpassing the previous high in the first quarter of 2015 , primarily due to strong mortgage demand expectations, especially for refinancing. The net share of lenders reporting an increase in demand over the previous three months reached the highest level for any third quarter since 2016 across all loan types, GSE-Eligible...(read more)

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11 Sep 2019 1:50 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

In the day just passed, bonds kicked into higher gear with respect to the correction that began to materialize last Thursday. If you feel like you missed the signs, go back and read the second half of this post: Beware The Bounce . Several of the commentary articles after that spoke about additional confirmation of the shift in increasingly stern verbiage (browse past posts here or here ). Corrections are normal, but they're still no fun . 10yr yields moved all the way to 1.745% yesterday, surprisingly close to the 1.748% technical level I offered in MBS Live chat when asked about the next technical ceiling yesterday (when rates were still under 1.70). In the day ahead, I want you to keep in mind (if you don't already) that the notion of technical analysis somehow allowing us to predict...(read more)

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11 Sep 2019 12:51 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Is our housing system a dumpster fire ?” (I don’t think so; we have hundreds of thousands helping millions every year although F&F would be better off if all their profits didn’t go straight to the government.) And now the CFPB is allowing housing counseling agencies that offer advice and assistance to struggling home buyers to receive fees from mortgage lenders . And how ‘bout those credit unions, notching another difference between them and other financial institutions (especially those lenders that sell loans to banks or any Agency under federal regulation). NCUA released interim guidance allowing federally insured credit unions to service hemp businesses. Remember that hemp is no longer a controlled substance at the federal level although it may not be produced...(read more)

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11 Sep 2019 12:15 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Although the week ended September 7 was shortened by the Labor Day holiday, mortgage application volume managed an increase. It was the first week-over-week gain since Early August. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of that volume, rose 2.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier although it fell 9 percent before adjustment. As interest rates continue to fall the pace of refinancing has become less frenetic, but that MBA index was still up 0.4 percent from the previous week and was 169 percent higher than the same week one year ago . The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 60.0 percent of total applications from 60.4 percent the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5.0 percent from...(read more)

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10 Sep 2019 10:14 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds continued to sell-off again today--this time slightly more aggressively than yesterday. Yes, the current spike in yields/rates is frustrating, but it's par for the course when it comes to bond market corrections. September is notorious for going against the summertime grain in the short-term, but not for single-handedly altering the longer-term trend. In short, this too shall pass, although we don't know exactly when or exactly how big the damage will be when that time comes. We can, however, throw out a few potential flashpoints in the near future: the ECB announcement on Thursday and the Fed next Wednesday. Even then, there is a technical limit to how much higher rates will go without actual economic fundamentals being part of the move. In other words, the market might not love...(read more)

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10 Sep 2019 9:38 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates and the broader bond market are both in the midst of a correction after hitting the best levels in more than 3 years last week. This is a correction that many market watchers were worried about on several occasions in August. But every time it looked like rates had bottomed, it only took a few days of indecision before they were again pressing into new long-term lows. This most recent break from long-term lows has been far more threatening with 2 of the past 4 business days bringing the biggest single-day jumps in several months. As a result, the average lender is now back to offering rates last seen in early August. Notably, a conventional 30yr fixed rate of 3.75% is right in the neighborhood of what many borrowers would be quoted today. That said, for many lenders 3.75% makes...(read more)

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10 Sep 2019 3:36 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

While it doesn't appear to be of "canary in the coalmine" magnitude, CoreLogic notes that there were annual increases in the delinquency rates of eight states in June. Those eight bucked a national trend that has brought the overall delinquency rate down to 4.0 percent, the lowest since at least 1999. That rate, which represents all mortgaged properties with loans 30 or more days past due or in foreclosure, is down 0.3 percent since June 2018. The company's Loan Performance Report says that the hot spots for increases were Vermont with a 0.7 percent increase, New Hampshire which rose 0.3 percent, and Nebraska and Minnesota, each up 0.2 percent. Four other states, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin and Connecticut, had nominal gains of 0.1 percent. There were more significant gains in several metropolitan...(read more)

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10 Sep 2019 1:16 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

In the day just passed, bonds began the week with a resolute sell-off that broke through an important overhead ceiling in 10yr yields (1.62). Weakness was present from the start of the European session through the end of the domestic session with 3 distinct phases (EU open, US open, EU close). This suggests initial limited weakness in Europe that was subsequently pulled higher by US traders after 8am ET. After Europe closed, Treasuries were more free to do what they wanted to do: sell more! In the day ahead, we'll be watching bonds closely for signs of additional momentum toward higher yields. There's never any way to tell whether we're looking at a correction that only lasts 3 days or merely the "first 3 days" of a much more substantial correction. Fairly convincing arguments...(read more)

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10 Sep 2019 12:42 pm

Posted To: Pipeline Press

The gap between the haves and have-nots continues to widen. Though the wealth of U.S. households has eclipsed $100 trillion, the wealthy have primarily accrued the post-recession gains. Those in the top 1 percent of U.S. households have seen their wealth double and now hold over $30 trillion of that . The next 9 percent of households hold about $40 trillion. As for the half of households outside of the top 50 percent, things are worse than they were before the recession . In 2002, the bottom 50 percent of households held $2 trillion in wealth, in 2006 was $1.2 trillion, went negative from 2010 to about 2013, and today is just at $1.3 trillion . “Fortunately” the share of families in the bottom half fell to 37 percent in 2016, from 43 percent in 2007. Lender Products and Services...(read more)

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10 Sep 2019 12:18 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Funny what several dozen downticks in interest rates will do consumers' perceptions of the mortgage market. Fannie Mae said today that its Home Purchase Sentiment Index, based on selected responses to its National Housing Survey (NHS) set its second consecutive record high in August. The Index rose 0.1 point to 93.8 and is up by 5.8 points compared to August 2018. However, five of the six components that make up the survey were either flat or moved lower. The increase in the index was due solely to an 11-point increase in the net positive responses as to whether mortgage rates will go down over the next year. The net number remains negative - at -17 percent - but it has risen from -52 percent since August 2018. Fannie Mae's chief economist Doug Duncan said, "Growing expectations that mortgage...(read more)

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09 Sep 2019 10:26 pm

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds were weaker overnight, weaker during the AM hours, and just for good measure, weaker again in the afternoon. When the dust cleared, 10yr yields had risen nearly 9bps and Fannie 3.0 MBS were down more than a quarter point (Fannie 2.5 coupons more than half a point). Surely, there must be something big and obvious to drive such a move! Was it some sort of trade war tweet, a big central bank speech, or an important piece of econ data? The 3 distinct stages to the selling would be our first clue that we were NOT dealing with one of those huge, singular, convenient, logical market movers. If we could only blame one thing for today's pain, it would have to be "technicals." That's saying something (for me, anyway) because I greatly hesitate to pin big market moves on technicals...(read more)

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09 Sep 2019 9:25 pm

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates moved higher today at the fastest pace in several months today. The underlying bond market (which dictates rates) was merely hinting at a corrective bounce by the end of last week. After today's moves, bonds are shouting their corrective intentions from the rooftop. While it does happen several times a year, it's rare to see rates move higher as quickly as they did today. If all of that sounds alarming, that's because it is! Days like today can indeed mark the shift into a higher gear for a run toward higher rates. That said, this is only the 4th day of higher rates since hitting 3-year lows at the beginning of last week. There are certainly past examples of days like today--that give the illusion of more pain to follow--that end up being false alarms. There's no way to know...(read more)

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09 Sep 2019 1:38 pm

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Low interest rates continue to expand the pool of refinancible mortgages and bolster mortgage prepayment rates according to Black Knight's Mortgage Monitor. The company, noting that Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed rate mortgages dropped 9 basis points last week to 3.49 percent, said its measure of the refinanceable population of homeowners is " the largest it has ever been " and July's prepayments were the highest in three years. More than half of homeowners with a 30-year mortgage now have an interest rate 0.75 percent above the prevailing rate. At 24.5 million, this is the largest the pool has been since early 2013. Of those, 11.7 million are considered capable of being approved for a new loan with a credit score of 720 or more, at least 20 percent equity in their homes, and being current on...(read more)

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